犯罪集中性與持續犯影響因子之追蹤研究

A Follow-up Study on Concentration of Crime among Youth Offenders and Influencing Factors of Persistent Offending in Taiwan

犯罪者之集中性及持續犯關係為發展犯罪學亟欲解開的謎題，亦為刑事司法體系重要研究議題。本研究主要目的在透過縱貫性研究設計，檢驗犯罪集中性現象、年齡與持續犯罪之關係和影響持續犯罪者生命歷程關鍵因子。本研究以1996年「少年偏差行為早年預測之研究」研究對象為樣本，結合調查資料和長達22年（至2017年9月止）官方犯罪資料進行分析453名有效犯罪樣本。分析結果顯示：一、有54人（占6.69％）犯罪次數超過20次以上（稱為核心犯罪者或持續犯），共犯下1,984件罪行（占51.21％），無論男女犯罪者均具有集中之特性，但女性犯罪集中率卻不如男性明顯，核心犯罪者仍以男性占大多數。二、核心犯罪者大都18歲以前開始犯罪生涯，26-30歲犯罪次數達高峰，40歲以後犯罪顯著下降但持續犯罪，其犯罪生涯具有穩定性，但其犯罪率亦隨年齡增長而下降。三、區別分析顯示，持續犯罪者與無犯罪紀錄者預測正確率為86.5％，性別、與生父母同住、子女數、學校負向因子、低自我控制、偏差友伴、遊樂型生活型態和早期自陳偏差等為影響持續犯形成的顯著因子。最後根據分析結果，提出預防持續犯罪者之相關建議。
The relationship between concentration of crime and the persistence of offending is a mystery for developmental criminology, and is also an imperative research issue for the criminal justice system. The main purpose of this study is, through longitudinal design, to examine the concentration of crime, the relationship between age and persistent offending, and the key factors affecting the life course of persistent offenders. The study collected data on 453 juvenile and youth offenders in 1996 when they took first survey,22 years (from 1996 to 2017) of police contact data were provided by the Bureau of Criminal Investigation. We found: (1) 54 people (6.69%) have more than 20 criminal records during 22-years. They had committed 1,984 criminal cases that occupy 51.21% of the total criminal cases. (2) Persisters began to commit crimes at the age of 16-18, and the number of crimes reached a peak at 26-30 years old. After age of 40 years old, crimes dropped significantly among persisters who continued to commit crimes but stabilized. (3) According to fingdings of the discriminant analysis, the prediction accuracy rate of persistent offenders and non-criminal recorders is 86.5%. Several factors have significant influences on the formation of persisters, including gender, living with parents, number of siblings in the family, school negative factors, low self-control, deviant peers, non-traditional lifestyle, and prior deviant behaviors. Finally, according to the research results, this study proposed implications for the prevention of persistent offenders.

The relationship between concentration of crime and the persistence of offending is a mystery for developmental criminology, and is also an imperative research issue for the criminal justice system. The main purpose of this study is, through longitudinal design, to examine the concentration of crime, the relationship between age and persistent offending, and the key factors affecting the life course of persistent offenders. The study collected data on 453 juvenile and youth offenders in 1996 when they took first survey,22 years (from 1996 to 2017) of police contact data were provided by the Bureau of Criminal Investigation. We found: (1) 54 people (6.69%) have more than 20 criminal records during 22-years. They had committed 1,984 criminal cases that occupy 51.21% of the total criminal cases. (2) Persisters began to commit crimes at the age of 16-18, and the number of crimes reached a peak at 26-30 years old. After age of 40 years old, crimes dropped significantly among persisters who continued to commit crimes but stabilized. (3) According to fingdings of the discriminant analysis, the prediction accuracy rate of persistent offenders and non-criminal recorders is 86.5%. Several factors have significant influences on the formation of persisters, including gender, living with parents, number of siblings in the family, school negative factors, low self-control, deviant peers, non-traditional lifestyle, and prior deviant behaviors. Finally, according to the research results, this study proposed implications for the prevention of persistent offenders.