日本因應中國一帶一路之政策分析──以東南亞為例

An Analysis of Japan's Response towards the Belt and Road Initiative: The Case of Southeast Asia

為了實現恢復中華民族偉大復興這一目標，2013年中國大陸提出「絲綢之路經濟帶」及「21世紀海上絲綢之路」，也就是所謂的「一帶一路」。「一帶一路」的本質就是輸出中國國內過剩產能與多餘外匯，透過打通陸路與海上的新興市場而有助於奠定自身重要區域經濟地位，並有助於抗衡美國圍堵與確保國際發展空間。東南亞地區在「21世紀海上絲綢之路」扮演重要的角色，不僅掌握中國的海上生命線，亦因基礎設施不夠完善而有助於中國推動「一帶一路」。同時，日本在該地區擁有重要的地緣、經濟以及安全利益，例如擁有豐富的天然資源；位處世界上航運最為頻繁的東西與南北兩條海上航道交匯處，控制東北亞國家的重要經濟命脈。對此，身為美國在亞洲的傳統盟邦，日本持續配合美國來圍堵中國，且因一山不容二虎，中國藉由推展「一帶一路」來提升自身的區域影響力，導致起初日本抱持著反對態度。儘管後來日本的立場有所轉變，雙方在第三國進行基礎設施合作，但仍舊持續採取相關反制措施，例如與歐盟簽署關於基礎設施的合作協議。因此，本文嘗試分析說明中國「一帶一路」倡議以及日本的因應策略，首先本文將論述中國「一帶一路」倡議內容與戰略目標；其次論述日本外交政策思維及其轉變，藉此作為分析日本因應策略的基礎；最後則分析說明日本在東南亞的國家利益，並說明其針對「一帶一路」所採取的因應策略與未來政策展望。

In 2013, aimed at the goal of realizing the great rejuvenation, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative consisting of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road. The objective of the BRI is to export the surplus production, consolidate China’s regional economic status and balance the US’ containment strategy. Southeast Asia plays an important role in the Maritime Silk Road, as the region not only controls lifelines at sea, its underdeveloped infrastructure provides opportunities for assistance from China. Meanwhile, Japan also boasts important geopolitical, economic and security interests in Southeast Asia not limited to rich natural resources and shipping lanes that are critical for Northeast Asia. Japan, as a strong ally of the US, continues to jointly contain China with the US and reject the BRI. While Japan slowly changed its position towards China – evident from cooperation on third party infrastructure – Japan continues to adopt competitive measures such as the signing of cooperation agreements with the European Union. This article seeks to analyze the BRI and Japan’s response. This article first discusses the content and strategic goals of the BRI, then turns to discuss the transformation of Japan’s foreign policy thinking, which serves as the basis for analyzing Japan’s strategy towards the BRI. This author then analyzes Japan’s national interests in Southeast Asia and discusses its strategy and future policy prospects towards the BRI.