不同財源融通方式的退休年金對經濟成長與社會福利的影響

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOCIAL WELFARE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS OF FINANCING A RETIREMENT PENSION

本文分析退休年金對經濟成長與社會福利的影響效果，並比較保費融通與稅賦融通的方式發放退休年金之相對優劣。經由本文的分析，得到以下結論：（1）無論保費融通或稅賦融通的方式發放，退休年金皆會挫低經濟成長，且稅賦融通的方式挫低經濟成長的程度將超過保費融通的方式；（2）退休年金的發放將減低年輕人的福利、提高年長者的福利，保費融通所減低年輕人的福利低於所提升年長者的福利，稅賦融通則可能減低年輕人較大幅度的福利，相對於保費融通的方式，稅賦融通的形式發放對各世代民眾的福利皆有較為不利的影響；（3）本文理論推估模型存在部分研究限制，導致各年齡層的就業人口與當期應納稅額等理論估計值與實際數據有些許差距，但因所有年齡層都是作跨期最適選擇，經折現加總後各年齡層的估計誤差將不大，使得退休年金對經濟成長與各世代福利的影響效果也不會有太大的估計誤差。

Based on the growth and welfare effects of a retirement pension, this paper analyzes the pros and cons (by the lifetime risk) between premium financing or tax financing. Several main findings are concluded as follows. First, both premium financing and tax financing reduce the balanced growth rate, and tax financing reduces economic growth rate more than does premium financing. Second, a retirement pension reduces the welfare of the younger and raises that of the older. To finance from premiums, the welfare loss of the younger is lower than the welfare gains of the older; but to finance from taxation, the welfare loss of the younger may be higher than the welfare gains of the older. Relative to premium financing, tax financing has larger bad effect on welfare of all generations. Finally, there are some research limitations in the theoretical estimation model, which leads to some estimation errors between the theoretical estimation and the actual data on the employed population and the tax payable in each age group. Since everyone determines the resource allocation by intertemporal optimization, the errors in estimating the growth and welfare effects of retirement pension will not be too large.