兩岸直航航空旅運選擇行為之研究：以臺北－上海航線為例

Air Travelers' Choice Behaviors under Direct Links between Taipei and Shanghai

兩岸在2008年開放航空直航後，雖讓旅客往來更加便利，然而後續衍生的運輸相關議題仍有待討論。本研究針對直航航線中最熱門的臺北--上海航線，探討旅客對於一般航空與低價航空之選擇，以及虹橋機場開放後，對於上海機場（浦東與虹橋）之選擇。研究中分別利用二項、多項及混合羅吉特模式構建旅客對於上海直航之航空公司及機場的選擇模式，爾後進行彈性分析。研究顯示，混合羅吉特模式對於直航航線在機場選擇中有較好的配適度，另外，結果發現旅客會較偏好選擇聯外接駁時間與成本較少的機場作為抵達機場，且旅客偏好選擇能提供每週航班較多的機場及票價低廉航空公司。至於彈性分析顯示虹橋機場開放後，大部分旅客會較偏好選擇虹橋機場作為抵達機場，且未來低價航空在加入此航線後也將對於一般航空公司造成相當大影響。研究建議國籍航空公司可以航線聯營或艙位共享的營運方式提供旅客更多的班次服務。

The cross-strail direct flights have opened up since 2008, which allowed more convenient cross-strait contacts. There are subsequent transport-related issues to be discussed. This study uses the most popular Taipei-Shanghai route for related discussions. The travelers' choice between traditional air carrier and low-cost carrier is considered. This study also considers how the opening of Shanghai Hongqiao Airport affects travelers' choice between Pudong and Hongqiao Airports regarding cross-strait direct flights. This study incorporates underlying latent attributes to estimate discrete choice models including binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and mixed logit model. The results show that the mixed logit model for choicing direct flight airport generally has a better fit. Besides, the results indicate that airfare and flight-frequency are important variables affecting passengers' choice of airlines. It also shows that the most important factors for passengers in choosing the airport are access time and access cost. In the elasticity analysis, it is displayed that when Hongqiao Airport is opened for direct flights, it would be the preferred, arrival airport for most passengers. Furthermore, when a low-cost carrier joins this route, it significantly influences other airlines. Therefore, with restrictions on the nationality of airline flights in this route, it is proposed for the airlines to adopt the way of joint operations or shared accommodation in order to provide more flight choices for air passengers.