散裝航運公司因應港口國管制機率模式之構建與應用

Construction and Application of Probability Models for Bulk Shipping Companies under Port State Control

散裝航運經營通常沒有固定航線，散裝船舶將面對全球各區域港口國管制官員檢查。港口國管制官員主要係根據船舶目標點數總和進行各別船舶檢查，以及主要根據船舶缺失項目進行各別船舶扣船。基於散裝航運公司立場，本文採用指數分布發展隨機變數之方法，找出船舶檢查與扣船的機率密度函數，構建因應港口國管制船舶檢查機率與扣船機率之模式。實證結果顯示，船舶經理人、船籍國、船級、船舶歷史與船舶特性等會影響船舶檢查機率，缺失項目數量會影響船舶扣船機率，而且船舶檢查機率與扣船機率均會對傭船業務造成影響。本文研究結果可以提供散裝航運公司作為船舶營運管理因應對策之參考。

The operation of dry bulk shipping in general is not confined to fixed routes, and bulk carriers are often confronted with the inspections of port state control officers (PSCO) all over the world The individual execution of the PSCO inspection complies with the total targeting score of each vessel, and the arrest of vessels is carried out in accordance with vessels' deficiencies. Based on the standpoint of bulk shipping companies, this paper adopted the exponential distribution to develop a random-variable method, and determined the probability density function for both vessel inspection and vessel arrest, thereby constructing the model on the probabilities of vessel inspection and vessel arrest responding to port state control (PSC). The results of this paper showed that ship managers, flag states, vessel classification, history and characteristics of vessels can affect the probability of vessel inspection, while the number of deficient items can have an impact on the probability of vessel arrest. Additionally, the probability of vessel inspection and arrest may also have negative impacts on bulk carriers' chartering operations. The outcome of this research can be used as a good reference for bulk shipping carriers involved in chartering business.