二手貨櫃船舶價格指數之建構－－Hedonic價格迴歸模型之應用

Constructing A Secondhand Containership Price Index-An Application of Hedonic Price Regression Model

有鑒於船舶具異質化商品特質，本研究首先利用Hedonic價格迴歸模型，來分析二手貨櫃船舶價格中之屬性因數價值。之後，再據以建立一純粹反映船舶市場各期供需變動之「純」價格指數。然經由實證研究發現：採傳統加權法編列之現行市場二手貨櫃船價指數，會存在助漲助跌的情形。再者，由於船舶屬性對二手貨櫃船價確實有顯著影響，因此肇因於貨櫃船舶大型化所致之二手貨櫃船價指數上升，將可能導致業者誤判為市場景氣需求拉引所致結果。

Due to the heterogeneity of containership attributes, this paper applied a Hedonic price regression model to construct a pure secondhand containership price index, removing the influence of cost-related attributes of containership and revealing the only effect of market variations on the secondhand containership price index. By comparing the pure price index with the prevailing secondhand containership price index based on the traditionally weighted average methods, the study suggests that the prevailing price index may present an overreaction to the market variations. In addition, the empirical study also indicates that a rising index accompanied with larger ships transactions may mislead index users to improperly interpret the signal as an outcome of demand-pull market business.