低成本航空兩岸直航航點評選模式

A Destination Selection Model for Low Cost Carriers' Direct Cross-Strait Flights

低成本航空在歐美地區已發展數十年，成功營運模式迅速擴展世界各地。近幾年亞洲地區開始有低成本航空之興起，如東南亞、日本及中國大陸等地區。儘管目前兩岸直航開通受限於政治環境，但因直航之開放實有其龐大潛在利益，故仍有頗多研究針對此議題進行探討。對於兩岸直航時代之來臨，低成本航空可謂具有競爭優勢的新加入者之一，事先的研究探討與籌畫工作實為重要。本研究以多屬性價值函數作為低成本航空兩岸直航航點評選模式之基礎判斷函數，並搭配德爾菲專家問卷調查，研擬直航航點評選架構。評選架構包含航點競爭力、機場基礎設施以及航點潛在需求三項構面，構面下共細分為八項屬性。整合各項屬性權重值及偏好值建構多屬性價值函數，並依此函數對候選方案進行方案績效值計算，屬性門檻值則應用於方案初步篩選程序。本研究以中國41座對外開放機場為實證分析對象，相較於以往研究僅針對中國沿海少數航點進行分析，本研究結果更加切合低成本航空尋求適合航點之特性。為求提高候選方案分析效率以及實務應用之方便性，本研究以Microsoft C#程式語言串聯航點評選程序，並以電腦視窗介面呈現分析數據，以提高本評選模式之適用性。實證分析結果顯示，上海浦東、深圳寶安、廈門高崎、杭州蕭山以及南京祿口五座機場較適合低成本航空開闢之直航航點。屬性權重值敏感度分析結果顯示，「起迄點預測需求量」屬性敏感度最大。

Low-cost carriers have operated for several decades in the United States and Europe. More recently, they have been operating in Southeast Asia, Japan, and Mainland China. Despite the political environment being ambiguous, the benefit of direct cross-strait flights makes researchers focus on this issue. LCC is considered one of the new competitive entrants in this forthcoming market. In this study, we build a sequential LCC destination selection model for direct cross-strait flights based on a multi-attribute value function. The evaluation and selection framework includes three dimensions: location competitiveness, airport infrastructure, and potential demand. The analysis is different from other research, which focused on limited alternative airports. In this study, all 41 airports available for foreign flights in Mainland China have been included. The results accordingly fit the characteristic requirements of LCCs, which are mostly eager to look for suitable secondary rather than hub airports. In the cause of analytical efficiency and practicability, a programming language is used to link each part of the judgmental and calculation processes. A content window is also used to make it easier for the decision maker to input data and display the results. The results of the empirical analyses show that five airports are suitable for LCCs, namely: Shanghai Pudong, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hangzhou, and Nanjing airports.