都市型態對旅運需求影響之結構化分析

Structuralized Analysis of Urban Form Impacts on Travel Demand

都市型態對旅運需求影響關係的確認，有助於旅運需求管理之都市發展策略設計，並可進一步評估諸如緊密城市、新傳統規劃、新都市主義、智慧型成長，以及大眾運輸導向發展等新興都市規劃理念在提高旅運效率上的成效。過去對此課題的研究侷限在片斷式地推演或實證分析，無法全面性地處理其間複雜的影響關係。因此，本研究改以結構方程模式進行實證分析，以臺北市為對象，同時納入「都市型態」、「旅運需求」及「發展特性」三個面向的潛在變項與量測變項，進行它們之間複雜影響關係的全包式實證分析，並根據潛在變項間的直接、間接以及總影響效果，設計旅運需求管理之都市發展策略。研究結果發現：都市型態特性中，發展密度愈高會愈增加旅次發生率，但可減少私人運具選擇的機會；土地混合使用的均衡性愈高，可減少旅次發生率，但會增加私人運具選擇；至於在建成環境設計方面，愈對行人友善的建成環境設計內容，愈可顯著地減少私人運具選擇的機會。根據上述結果，本研究研提出減少旅次發生以及減少私人運具選擇的都市發展策略，期能達到旅運需求管理的目標。

The confirmation of the effects made by urban form to travel demand helps in designing urban development strategies for travel demand management. It also can further estimate the effects on improving travel efficiency of new urban planning paradigms, such as compact city, neotraditional planning, new urbanism, smart growth and transit-oriented development. In the past, deductions or empirical analyses on this issue were fragmentary so that they could not recognize completely the complicated relationships between urban form and travel demand. Therefore, this research applied Structural Equation Modeling to the empirical analysis. The Taipei City was chosen to be the study subject and three dimensions of latent variables and measured variables on "urban form", "travel demand", and "development character" were brought into our research at the same time to analyze the complicated relationships among variables. The urban development strategies of travel demand management were designed based on direct, indirect, and total effects among latent variables. The empirical findings reached the following conclusions. First, development density increases trip generation rate, but decreases mode choice of private vehicles. Second, balance of mixed land-use decreases trip generation rate, but increases mode choice of private vehicles. Finally, pedestrian-friendliness in the design of build environment significantly decreases mode choice of private vehicles. According to the empirical results, this research recommends urban development strategies for decreasing trip generation and mode choice of private vehicles to achieve the goals of travel demand management.