交通與住宅政策對不動產短期均衡價格之影響－－以高雄市為例

Impact on the Short-Run Real Estate Price Due to Transportation and Housing Policies - The Case of Kaohsiung City

1983年，CATLAS模型(Chicago Area Transportation/Land Use AnalysisSystem)的建立提供了交通與土地使用整合分析的實證工具。惟到目前為止，該模型被引用於實務政策分析的研究並不多見。其原因一方面與該模型著重於短期市場均衡之理念有關，兩另一方面國內之不動產市場結構是否適用該模型亦尚未清楚。本研究嘗試以高雄市為例，檢視該模型在臺灣地區的實證能力。經以「高雄都會區運輸需求研究」、「高雄市住宅建設計畫」之調查資料進行實證。結果發現在高雄地區高房價伴隨高空屋率之住宅市場結構下，原始之供給次模型無法得到合理解釋，必須加以修正。本研究將供給模型分解為住宅存量函數以及住宅使用機率函數。以修正後的模型進行分析，結果得到當對市區通勤汽機車實施管制或同時提高通勤公車之行駛路權時，郊區之不動產價格因而上漲。而當增加住宅供給時，不動產價格則如預期般下降。顯示經修正後的模型，已能合理反映高雄地區住宅市場結構現況。

The development of CATLAS model in 1983 provided an useful instrumentin integrating urban transportation and land use. However, empiricalapplications embodied CATLAS structure are few. In this study, we modified themodel according to the market structure of Taiwan urban housing. We spread thehousing supply function of CATLAS into two parts: the housing stock function andthe probability function of housing occupancy. A database manipulated from theStudy of Transportation Demand in Kaohsiung Metropolitan Area and from theHousing Construction Plan ofKaohsiung City was used for empirical test. Theresults indicated that a regulation to commuting auto and/or increasing thelevel of right of way to commuting bus increases the real estate price insuburban area and a significant housing supply decreases the market price asexpected. We conclude that the modified CATLAS model can reasonably reflect theTaiwan housing market structure.