航線流量分配率與航空運量之空間集中度之探討

A Study on the Route Share and Spatial Concentration of Air Traffic Flow

目前分析一地區之航空網路或各城市對航線旅次多苯之方法大都以計量經濟模式或趨勢分析方法個別作預測，鮮少將兩者視為一系統合併討論。本研究定義航線流量及網路流量集中度之比率累計加總值並分析其與加總順序問的關係，繪出一離散圖形，再以一連續函數逼近之，藉由校估函數係數，計算個別城市對流童與不同機場所形成的空間集中度之大小。並以亞太地區十個國家之相對航線流亡及網路規模大小為例，以此範圍中之45條城市對航線中的前十條航線流量做為參數校估依據，預測出個別城市對流量並與實際值加以比較；同時並對亞太地區以各國際機場為中心之航線所形成的網路規模作一集中度之探討，分析此區域內客運量的分佈情形。

Regional air traffic and city-pair route traffic are usuallypredicted, separatly, by econometric or trend analysis. Few studies investigatedtwo types of traffic by viewing both as a system. This paper defines the maximumcumulative proportion of trips that are distributed to a set of routes as theindex of cumulative route flow shares and the maximum cumulative proportion oftrips that are linked to a set of nodes as the index of spatial concentration.The curves connecting the indexes of incremental routes and incremental nodesare plotted and approximated by Gompertz functions. Estimated paprameters of theGompertz functions can be used to calculate the trafficflow of each air routeand to evaluate the spatial concentration of air traffic in a region. Theorigin-destination data of air traffic among 10 Asia-Pacific cities in 1989 wereexamined in a case study. Compared with real values, the estimated results ofcalibrated model are found reasonable. The spatial concentration of air trafficin this region are also analyzed and discussed.