東亞貿易雙軸心的形成

On the Determinants of Trading Hubs in East and Southeast Asia

根據現有貿易軸心估計文獻為基礎，我們修正並發展兩個不同方向的貿易軸心，即出口目的地軸心和進口來源軸心，本文顯示東亞在1990年以來，中日貿易雙軸心之動態發展。具體而言，東亞貿易地位隨著中國崛起，以及日本日益萎縮，讓中國成為東亞地區新的貿易核心。此現象，本文進而從理論以解釋東亞貿易雙軸心如何形成，如本國市場效果（HME）、外國直接投資（FDI）、技術優勢、運輸樞紐，以及在全球供應鏈（GSC）下的組裝中心等。最後，本文以東亞11國以及歐美共13個經濟體，從1993－2014年的追蹤資料進行驗證，實證結果證實除了運輸樞紐之外，本國市場效果、組裝中心和技術優勢等，在出口目的地和/或進口來源軸心方面，對於建立貿易軸心具作用力。但是，特定國家仍然存在形成貿易中心的具體影響，特別是中國、美國和歐盟。

Based on the existing hubness measure in the trade literature, we develop two modified trading hub indexes in two directions, export destination, and import source. Then we demonstrate the stylized fact of China and Japan’s double trading hub, especially in an export destination sense, in East Asia since the early 1990s. After showing the dynamics of the twin hub, more specifically the rising China hub and shrinking Japan hub, theoretical explanations, such as the home-market effect (HME), FDI and technological advantage, transport hub and assembly hub under a global supply chain (GSC) are asserted. Finally, panel data from 1993 to 2014 of thirteen economies, including eleven economies in East Asia, the USA, and EU as a whole, are established to conduct empirical tests. In general, except the transport hub, the empirical evidence supports most of the theoretical arguments, including the role of HME, assembly hub and technological advantage for making a trading hub, in terms of export destination and/or import sources. However, there still remains a country-specific effect in the fostering of the trading hub, especially China, USA, and EU.