大統戰下的有限自主：中國省級地方臺辦的組織特徵與政治流動

Limited Autonomy Under the ''Great United Front'': Organizational Characteristics and Political Mobility of the Provincial Taiwan Affairs Office System

多數關於中共臺辦體系與人事任命的研究，幾乎限於中央層級的分析，例如中共中央對臺領導小組以及國務院臺灣事務辦公室。與先前的研究不同，本文試圖探討省級臺灣事務辦公室的人事任命。我們根據碎裂式威權主義（fragmented authoritarianism）理論，提出「部門吸納」與「小組領導」的概念，分析中國31個省臺辦的組織結構，並探討其組織變遷如何受到特定歷史條件所制約。我們發現，各省臺辦的組織發展邏輯有很強的路徑依賴特性，同時也會依照當前統戰工作的需要而調整。其次，在分析2000～2018年臺辦主任的仕途歷程後，我們發現習近平主政後的臺辦主任平均任期較短，幹部更替速度也較快。第三，我們的分析顯示，現任省臺辦主任具統戰工作歷練的比例，和過去相比顯著增加。整體而言，我們的實證分析顯示省臺辦的幹部任用模式朝「有限活化」的方向改變。

Most previous studies that examined the personnel appointment of CCP's Taiwan Affairs Office system focused on the analysis at the national level, such as the CCP's Central Leading Small Group for Taiwan Affairs and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council. Unlike these previous studies, this paper examines the personnel appointment of the Provincial Taiwan Affairs Office (PTAO). Drawing from the theory of fragmented authoritarianism, we propose the concepts of ''department absorbing'' and ''leadership of Small Group'' to analyze 31 PTAO's organizational structures and examine how particular historical conditions shaped their organizational change. We find that PTAO's organizational development largely follows the logic of ''path dependence,'' and the development trajectories have been shaped by the Great United Front. Moreover, based on the analysis of the career development of PTAO directors from 2000 to 2018, we find that under the rule of Xi Jinping, the average term length of PTAO's directors is shorter, and the turnover rate of the cadre is higher. Thirdly, we find that the percentage of current directors who had Great United Front working experiences has been considerably increased. Overall, this study demonstrates that the pattern of PTAO cadre appointment is changing toward a direction of ''limited renewal.''