膠州灣事件後中日關係的轉變：兼論日本對華外交的多元性

The Shift of Sino-Japanese Relations after the Jiaozhou Bay Incident: With a Study on the Pluralism of the Japanese Diplomacy towards China

膠州灣事件發生後，日本外務省制定的外交對策是勸說清政府對德妥協，十分保守；實際操作中，駐華公使矢野文雄也表現平平。而代理駐上海總領事小田切萬壽之助借此機會，促使上海道蔡鈞向兩江總督劉坤一、湖廣總督張之洞提出中英日同盟的建議。一名英國海軍軍官此時亦提出此議。同時，參謀次長川上操六先後派遣軍官神尾光臣、宇都宮太郎來華遊說。在種種合力作用下，劉坤一向總理衙門提議聯盟英日，而張之洞率先將此議上奏。儘管中樞對此不表贊同，但親日的種子已在一批清朝官員心中種下，對此後中日關係的發展產生了重大影響。由於英國此時並沒有對華結好的計畫，聯英主張很快消失。這種派遣中下級軍官遊說清朝封疆大吏的模式，亦曾在福建、四川、直隸、奉天等地展開。日本對華外交在此取得了巨大的成功，其中發揮關鍵作用的不是外務省與駐華公使，而是理論上沒有外交權責的駐上海總領事館與參謀本部，體現了日本對華外交主體多元性的特點。

After the Jiaozhou Bay Incident of 1897, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs formulated a very conservative diplomatic strategy to persuade the Qing government to compromise with Germany. In practice, the performance of Yano Fumio, the Minister to China, was not impressive. Hence, Odagiri Masunosuke, the acting Consul General in Shanghai, took this opportunity to persuade Cai Jun, the Circuit Intendant of Shanghai, to put forward a proposal for an alliance between China, Britain, and Japan to Liu Kunyi and Zhang Zhidong, the Viceroy of Liangjiang and Huguang respectively. A similar proposal was also raised by a British naval officer. At the same time, Kawakami Soroku, the vice director of the Japanese General Staff sent his subordinates Kamio Mitsuomi and Utsunomiya Tarō to China for lobbying Chinese officials. Under the influences of all these events, Liu Kunyi proposed the Zongli Yamen to ally with Britain and Japan, and Zhang Zhidong took the lead in presenting the idea to the Emperor. Although the central government did not agree with this proposal, pro-Japan seeds were planted in the mind of a number of Chinese officials, which had a significant impact on the Sino-Japanese relations thereafter. Because Britain had no plan to ally with China, the idea of allying with Britain disappeared soon. This mode of sending middle and junior officers for lobbying Chinese high-rank regional officials was also carried out in some other provinces such as Fujian, Sichuan, Zhili, and Fengtian. In this aspect, Japan's diplomacy towards China had achieved great success, among which the key role was not played by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Minister to China, but by the Consul General in Shanghai and the General Staff, which theoretically have no diplomatic responsibilities. This reveals the pluralism of Japanese diplomacy towards China.