總統大選公民辯論會之第三人效果

The Third-Person Effect of the Presidential Debate in Taiwan 2008

本研究以臺灣2008年總統大選公民辯論會，檢測第三人效果是否會因選民的政黨傾向及其對候選人表現的主觀評估而有差異，並探討第三人效果對選民的選舉行為及未來公民辯論會舉辦之支持度的影響。本研究驗證第三人效果認知的存在，且第三人效果認知差距會因訊息特性由負轉正而減弱消失。第三人效果認知差距愈強，愈能激發選民的投票意願，但愈會不支持未來公民辯論的舉辦及愈不容易改變其投票決定。

Using the third-person effect hypothesis, this study investigated percep-tions of voters on the effect of the 2008 presidential debate in Taiwan and the perceptions of correlation to supporting future presidential debates and voting behaviors. Message desirability was determined by party affiliations of voters and their evaluations regarding candidates' performance. An analysis on the responses from 784 random-sampled participants revealed that when participants believed their own candidate performed less satisfied than the candidate of the other party, they reported that they were not much influenced; however they claimed that others would be. This third-person differential diminished when DPP's supporters believed their candidate's performance was better than KMT's candidate. A significant correlation indicated not supporting future presidential debates and third-person perception level. The third-person differential was positively correlated to the likelihood to vote and negatively correlated to the intentions to discuss the debate with others and change the vote decision, which expands third-person behavioral domains beyond censorship issues.