兩岸直航對台灣農業之影響

The Impacts of Direct Sea and Air Links Between Taiwan and China on Agricultural Sector

在經發會與小三通之後，是否應進一步開放台灣與中國大陸直航的爭議即甚署塵上，本文以實證經濟的角度，輔以全球貿易分析GTAP模型及其最新版資料庫，探討此一議題對台灣農業所帶來之經濟影響。研究結果顯示，台灣大部分的農產品在開放與中國大陸直航後，產量都會下降，且在開放直航後，台灣與中國大陸之間農產品進出口之依存關係將有上升的趨勢。因此來自中國大陸地區農產品的檢疫與安全檢查，在兩岸開放直航後就顯得格外重要，尤其疫情的掌控與走私的取締，應是兩岸直航後當務之急。

Although the issues of the 'three links' between Taiwan and Mainland China have been intensively discussed, the empirical research is rare. By using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, this paper is to evaluate the impacts of direct sea and air links on agricultural sectors in Taiwan and Asia-Pacific regional economies. The results show that the production in most agricultural products in Taiwan decreases. Moreover, for country as a whole, the exports of agricultural products in Japan will decrease most. Finally, the trade dependence between Taiwan and China will increase.