台灣酪農業者對前景預期的計量分析

An Econometric Analysis on the Outlook of the Dairy Farmers in Taiwan

由於酪農對未來的信心將影響其決策行為，而決策行為將影響台灣乳酪業的發展。為了探討影響酪農對未來的信心的因素，因而進行此研究分析。在已收集的資料上使用Probit、Logit、Weibull Mscore模型來分析酪農的質量反應，結果發現區域別與農場所得是影響酪農對未來的信心因數，整體而言酪農對未來的反應是悲觀的，這隱含應該是政府出面引導的時刻。

Dairy farmers' outlook often influences their decision-making, which in turn will affect the diary industry's future development. This research is to investigate the decision factors of the dairy farmers' outlook. Based on our collected data and using the Probit, Logit, Weibull and Mscore models, we analyze the farmers' qualitative response. The results show that the dairy farmers' location and income determine their outlook. Moreover, the farmers in our sample overall show a pessimistic response toward their future prospects. This implies that it may be time for the government to lead.