中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準探討

A Study Approach of State Capacity towards China Collapse Thesis

天安門事件後的中國崩潰論，直到九○年代的中後期，仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起，則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準，這是值得研究的。至於，如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差，並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型，則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測，其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制，以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。

Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom's collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China's rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory's failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China's future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP's ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory.