西撒哈拉的獨立建國和外交承認：三層賽局的分析

The Independence Movement and Diplomatic Recognition of Western Sahara: A Three-Level Games Analysis

在國際法院拒絕摩洛哥對西撒哈拉殖民地前的領土主權要求三十多年以後，認可西撒哈拉非自治領土身份的政治解決方案尚未達成。儘管聯合國仍再繼續協調公投的努力，但撒哈威人仍然尚未履行其自決的權利。浦特南的多層賽局理論揭示了解決爭議的情景下，國內和國際因素對 整個談判的結果亦具有同樣明顯的影響。第二層賽局中的相齟，可以歸諸於第一層賽局的因素，來自外部的壓力同樣能夠讓雙方都很難作出讓步，並最後將使尋找解決方案的努力無果而終。目前大部份的文獻專注於第一及第二層賽局的探討，在此基礎上，本文也同時針對第三層次進行研究，即從地緣政治環境的更開闊角度探究談判協調中形成的長期僵局的原因所在。具體來說，本文旨在解決美國、歐盟、法國和西班牙對馬格里布地區的政策及戰略的變化在西撒衝突的發展中所產生的影響

More than 30 years after the International Court of Justice rejected Morocco's claim of pre-colonial territorial sovereignty over Western Sahara, a political solution on the status of the Non-Self-Governing Territory has yet to be reached and despite the ongoing UN efforts to negotiate a referendum, the Sahrawis have yet to exercise their right to self-determination. Robert Putnam's model of multi-level games shows us how in conflict resolution, domestic and external factors exert equally salient effects on overall outcomes. Deadlock in the second game may be attributed to first game factors; likewise external pressures also mean that neither side can make real concessions and ultimately that attempts to broker a solution can thus prove unsuccessful. Most literature on the subject focuses on the first and second games, this article goes beyond this, looking to the third game, the wider geopolitical environment for explanation of the longstanding impasse in the negotiation process. Specifically, it attempts to explain how the impact of American, European Union, French and Spanish policy and their strategic interests in the Maghreb could effect developments in the dispute over Western Sahara.