區域整合脈絡下的「一帶一路」：地緣政治經濟觀點

'One Belt, One Road''in the Context of Regional Integration: Geopolitical Economic Perspectives

習近平於 2011 年底提出的「一帶一路」倡議，已經演變為中國大陸當前最重要的國際戰略方案之一。本文詴圖以歷史─結構主義的取徑 （historical-structural approach）為基礎，從地緣政治經濟學的角度審視以下兩大子題：1. 此一倡議特徵、國內與國際地緣戰略意涵，以及其中隱含的風險與挑戰。2. 此一倡議所牽動的亞太區域整合趨勢，初步評估其地緣戰略上的影響。 本文作者認為，「一帶一路」倡議由於初期投入的資源充足，以及宣傳上的成功，必然引發美、日、印度等大國相應的區域整合佈局，以平衡此一倡議可能帶來的地緣戰略效應。此外，該倡議的中長期影響，繫於北京在相對短期間如何處理該倡議所面對的風險因子，前景仍具高度不確定性。

The ''One Belt, One Road'' (OBOR) Initiative issued by Xi Jinping at the year end of 2013 has emerged as one of the most significant international strategies of China. This article, based on the historical-structural approach, is examining two subjects regarding this Initiative with perspectives of geopolitical economy: first, the characteristics, domestic and international geo-strategic implications of this Initiative, as well as the challenges it is facing; second, The changing landscape of Asia-Pacific regional integration impacted by this Initiative, and its influence on regional geo-strategic environment. It is argued that, due to the magnificent resources invested and the successful outreaching efforts, this initiative is doomed to incur strategic responses from major global/regional powers like the U.S., Japan, Russia and India. The long term effects of this Initiative will be determined by how China will manage the risks this Initiative is facing in the relatively short term. The future of this Initiative is in uncertainty.