軍人勢力對緬甸新政局的影響：「式微」或「延續」？

'Decline''or''Continuation''? Military Regime's Impacts on Myanmar's New Government

緬甸於 2015 年 11 月 8 日舉行自 1990 年 5 月大選後首次相對自由的選舉，翁山蘇姬領導的全國民主聯盟不僅贏得緬甸國會多數席次，更具備完全執政的條件，躍升成為緬甸第一大黨。在此情況下，國際輿論普遍看好緬甸選後政局將趨於穩定，且軍方的影響力可能日漸「式微」。然而，也有學者專家認為，緬甸政治發展依舊充滿不確定性，其主因在於：軍方在過去 50 年的獨裁期間，利用執政優勢將各種符合其利益、能確保其永續專權的設計，置入緬甸憲政體制中，使該國在 2015 年大選後雖經歷政權的和帄轉移，但軍方影響力卻在憲法的不合理保障下得以「延續」。有鑑於此，本文以「新制度主義」的論點為基礎，深入緬甸「行政」、「立法」與「司法」等三個制度層面，探究「軍人」此ㄧ非制度要素在失去執政權後對緬甸發展是否仍有影響力。最後發現，儘管代表軍系勢力的聯邦鞏固與發展黨在 2015 年大選中敗給全民盟，致使軍方對緬甸各制度層面的掌控力有些許「式微」，但憲法賦予軍方的諸多權力，以及軍人作為緬甸守護者的舊有傳統，仍讓軍方之主政權並未因選舉落敗而喪失，反倒藉由全民盟無法拒絕的權力分享得以「延續」。

General elections were held in Myanmar on November 8th, 2015, with the elections considered the first free election since May of 1990, with the National League for Democracy (NLD) winning parliamentary majority and holds absolute majority as Myanmar‘s biggest political party. Under such conditions, international communities are generally optimistic about Myanmar‘s post-election political stability and foresee a gradual ''decline'' in the military‘s influence. However, some experts suspect that Myanmar‘s political development is still uncertain. This is largely because throughout the military‘s over five-decade authoritarian rule, it has used its political advantages to implement various benefits in the Myanmar constitution to ensure that it can sustain its power, resulting in the ''continuation'' of the junta‘s influence under unreasonable constitutional protection even after the peaceful turnover of political power after the 2015 elections. Bearing this in mind, based on the concept of New Institutionalism, an in-depth investigation on Myanmar‘s three institutional sectors – its administrative, legislative, and judicial systems – was conducted for this study, examining if the military regime, a non-institutional sector, is still influential towards Myanmar‘s development after losing its political authority. It is discovered that although the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) lost to NLD during the 2015 elections resulting in a ''decline'' in the military‘s control over different institutional sectors in Myanmar, however, the constitution provides many different controls to the military. Along with the old tradition of regarding the military as a guardian of Myanmar, the current conditions see the military regime still active despite losing in the elections, with a ''continuation'' in the military‘s authority because NLD is unable to refuse handing over certain control to the military.