東北亞地緣政治環境下中日關係之未來走勢

Geopolitics in Northeast Asia and the Future of Sino-Japan Relations

安倍政府第二次執政以來，擺出「對美重視，對中牽制」的姿態。目前來看，中日雙方緊張關係有所緩和，但仍面臨一系列「可燃性較高的政治課題」。如果雙方不小心謹慎地管控上述政治課題，將會繼續惡化中日關係，客觀上制約了該地區進一步的發展。中日關係的核心問題是兩國是否都會沿著和平發展道路同向而行，推動中日關係的戰略互惠是中日關係未來發展的正確方向，合作友好仍是今後是構建中日關係原點。在雙方矛盾不會簡單消失的前提下，必須要避免中日關係從「一種已經很複雜的關係」，演變為「更加複雜的關係」，從而出現新的裂痕。

Since the beginning of the second Abe administration, Japan has adopted the posture of emphasizing the US while containing China. Currently, while the tense relationship between China and Japan has relaxed somewhat, both countries still face a series of highly explosive political issues. If both China and Japan are not cautious enough to manage the politics between them, one can expect China-Japan relations to deteriorate and limit the regional development in Asia. The crux of the problem in China-Japan relations is whether Beijing and Tokyo would both move forward along the path of peaceful development. The future of China-Japan relations lies in strategic reciprocity between the two governments; cooperation remains the key to a constructive relationship between China and Japan in the future. In the circumstance that paradoxes between the two countries will not disappear easily, Beijing and Tokyo must prevent the already complicated relationship between the two countries from becoming even more complicated and giving rise to new challenges.