論人民幣國際化：安全至上還是悲劇一場？

The Internationalization of the RMB: the Best Route to Security or the Inevitability of Tragedy?

倘若貨幣與國家權力間有著不可分割之聯繫，甚至一種貨幣能不能成為「國際貨幣」(international currency)與它的發行國是否為國際體系中具有影響力的行為者密切相關，那麼以國家為核心思考且極度關注權力分配與相對獲益(relative gains)的結構現實主義，將是一個適合用以分析貨幣政治議題的理論。本文分從守勢與攻勢兩個結構現實主義的流派，檢視目前人民幣的國際化並進而對其未來可能的影響做出預測。結論指出，如果中國真的要追求貨幣政策自主和確保經濟安全，在結構制約之下唯有自助(self-help)一途才能讓它對美國的依賴最小，其它方法均只會是耗時費力且成效有限。然而，倘若中國經濟實力可以繼續增長，其追求人民幣國際化的目標就必然會導致與美國爆發衝突之悲劇。

Structural realism, concentrating its theoretical thoughts on sovereign states and relative gains, is thus qualified for exploring currency politics in the field of international relations, if the inseparable connection between currency and state power indeed exists or even that whether one currency could be recognized as the world's primary currency is deeply related to the influence of its issuing authority. According to defensive and offensive realist perspectives, this paper explores the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) and predicts its possible impacts in the future. The research finding demonstrates that the structural constraint from the international system leaves China no choice but only self-help to achieve RMB's monetary-policy independence for China's economic security; otherwise, any other alternatives are blue in the face. However, if China continues to grow economically over the next decades, the strategy of RMB internationalization will undoubtedly lead to a tragic hegemonic war between China and the United States.