跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴協定對亞太區域經濟影響的評估

The Economic Impacts of TTIP on the Asia Pacific Economies: a quantitative assessment

本文利用全球貿易一般均衡模型（GTAP）評估跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴協定的簽署將對亞太區域經濟體產生何種程度的影響。評估結果顯示TTIP 的形成將不利於 APEC 區域經濟體的整體經濟福利，隨著 TTIP 的自由化程度越高，對 APEC 產生的負面衝擊則越大。然而，當前 APEC 所倡議的亞太自由貿易區（FTAAP）將能為 APEC 有效扮演抵禦 TTIP 負面衝擊的角色，隨著亞太自由貿易區的自由化程度提高，APEC 所能卸除 TTIP負面影響的能力也越大，反過來將大幅降低歐盟藉 TTIP 所創造的經濟優勢。因此，現階段正在談判的 TTIP 可思考將 APEC 經濟體納入擴員談判的對象，以極大化未來 TTIP 及 FTAAP 陸續完成後對於美、歐兩強所創造的經濟利益。

Mobilizing the methods and model of GTAP, the authors of this paper assess the economic impacts of the coming Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) on economies in the Asia-Pacific Region. The results of the quantitative simulation show that the TTIP will generate negative impacts on the welfare standard of the Asia-Pacific economies in general. The more the TTIP liberalizes the trade and investment regime between the two parties, the severer the negative impacts on the APEC member economies. It is argued that the FTAAP in discussion will be a counter-balance of the negative impacts once it is in position. The capability that FTAAP can counter balance the negative impacts grows and the benefits that EU can win from TTIP declines, when the level of trade liberalization in FTAAP heaves. The authors suggest that it is considerable for the US-EU partnership to develop concrete ways for including selected 3rd parties in the APEC Region into the coming TTIP, so as to maximize the economic interests that US and EU can realize from the establishment of TTIP and FTAAP in the foreseeable future.