從澳洲潛艦個案看日本國防工業改革之挑戰

The Challenges of Japan's Defense Industry from the Australia Submarine Case

2016年4月26日澳洲總理宣布潛艦標案，選擇「法國國有船舶製造企業集團」為新潛艇計畫的研發夥伴。日本的落敗凸顯戰後國防工業因經濟官僚主導與武器出口禁令所造成的非競爭體質。安倍晉三內閣在2012年二次執政後，力圖改革國防工業，包含通過「防衛裝備移轉三原則」、〈防衛生產與技術基礎戰略〉、與成立防衛裝備廳。然而對企業而言，政治的不確定性可能造成商業風險大過配合政策所帶來的利益。換言之，目前的改革仍無法提供足夠利潤誘因改變企業行為，造成日本企業抱持遲疑的態度，也成為日本落敗的主因。

On April 26, 2016, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced DCNS as the future partner for the SEA 1000 Future Submarine Program. The defeat of Japan demonstrates the non-competitive nature of postwar Japan's defense industry resulted from the domination of economic bureaucrats and arms exports ban. Although the Second Abe Cabinet starting from 2012 has attempted to reform the defense industry, including passed the new Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, Basic Strategy on Defense Production and Technological Foundation, and the establishment of Acquisition Technology and Logistics Agency. These reforms, however, are still too weak to provide sufficient business incentives to change corporate behaviors. Political uncertainty might produce higher business risks than interests from carrying out government policy for Japanese enterprises. In sum, Japanese makers' hesitation is the main factor for Japan's defeat in the Australia submarine case.