泰國與台灣簽訂自由貿易協定可能性之政治分析

The Possibility for Free Trade Agreement between Thailand and Taiwan: A Political Analysis

2010年1月1日東協（Associations of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN）加一正式啟動之後，對於東亞區域經濟整合產生極為重大的影響，往後若東協加三與東協加六成形後，台灣被邊緣化的危機將加劇。據此台灣早就採取部分策略試圖加以回應，首先為與邦交國家簽訂雙邊自由貿易協定（Free Trade Agreement, FTA），台灣先前與包括巴拿馬（2004 年1月1 日生效）、尼加拉瓜（2006年6 月16日生效）、瓜地馬拉（2006 年7月1 日生效）、薩爾瓦多與宏都拉斯（2008 年3 月1 日生效）在內的五個國家簽訂四個FTA。但台灣與這五個國家的貿易比重相當低，成效相當有限。是以，台灣總統馬英九於2008 年上台之後，積極推動與中國大陸洽簽兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA），一方面希望可以進軍中國大陸市場，另一方面也希望開啟台灣與其他國家洽簽FTA 或經濟合作協議（Economic Cooperation Agreement, ECA）的機會，包括：美國與其他亞太國家，例如：新加坡與紐西蘭等。本研究主要將透過泰國國內政治與國際政治等因素以分析泰國與台灣簽訂ECA或FTA的可能性。

China- ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) officially launched in 2010. In order to avoid being marginalized, Taiwan actively sought to sign Free Trade Agreements with Panama, Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. However, the humble trade volumes between Taiwan and the five South American trading partners are far from expected. Consequently, Taiwan signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China in June 2010 in hopes of opening doors to trade agreements with other countries, including Singapore, New Zealand, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Israel. The president of Taiwan also announced that Taiwan is looking for opportunity to participate the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement in 8 years. Thailand is Taiwan's 13th largest trading partner and also the main target to pursue FTA. This paper aims to analyze the possibility of signing FTA between Taiwan and Thailand through the dimensions of Thai domestic politics and international politics. Thailand declines to negotiate with Taiwan due to Article 190 of Thai Constitution, Thaksin's exile, and China's opposition. But the window of opportunity is still open if Taiwan acts correctly.