中國和平崛起過程中之台灣角色

Taiwan: A Key to China's Peaceful Rise

中國的崛起，對當前國際體系產生結構性的影響。傳統現實主義的「無政府態」、「權力競爭」以及「權力制衡」等三種概念已經無法全然地解釋當前國際關係現況，必須以「階層制」、「意圖」與「搭順風車」等另三種概念作為理性思維基礎，或許較能對東亞的國際關係作適當的分析與解釋。同時，強權間權力的轉移並不必然會生衝突，其關鍵即在於躍升中的強權有無改變現狀的意圖。基此，中國的崛起由於可透過當前國際體系中多種自由開放的多邊機制來滿足其國家利益的需求，而並不急於，也尚無意圖要推翻當前國際現狀，挑戰美國的霸權。更重要的是，在中國崛起的過程中，其最大的威脅與挑戰並非來自於國際事務上的挫折與壓力，而是其國內日益高漲的社會不安與民族主義激情。在此前提下，台灣，這個長期以來一直被視為中國核心利益的議題，其與中國大陸的交往與未來的走向若不能謹慎處理，當是最有可能引發其強烈民族主義的一個重要的引火點，更是中國是否能在現狀中「和平崛起」，並成為世界上一個負責任的強權的重要關鍵。

The rise of China has a significant impact on the study of International Relations, in the traditional realist concepts of ''anarchy,'' ''power struggle,'' and ''balance of power'' would no longer serve as the central premises for the understanding of international system in general, and as description and explanation for the international behavior of the rising China in particular. This study attempts to, along with the aforementioned three concepts, integrate the other three concepts, to wit, ''hierarchy,'' ''intention,'' and ''bandwagoning'' as additional premises in contemporary IR theory, and thus to provide a more comprehensive framework for the understanding of the rising China in East Asian international societies. This paper asserts that power transition per se may not be a necessary cause of the war; rather, a war is likely only when the rising power has the intention to overturn the status quo. To be sure, the rising China has neither the intention, nor the hurry, for the time- being, to change the status quo of contemporary international system. However, this paper argues that the challenge for a rising China does not come from the pressure and/or frustration that she has encountered abroad, but from a possible domestic social unrest and national sentiments. Accordingly, Taiwan's assertion, among others, may served as a flashpoint to ignite a strong Chinese nationalism, and that would inevitably be a real challenge to, and serve as a key to China's continued peaceful rise in the future.