歐盟對烏克蘭政策之外溢效果

Spillover Effects and EU's Policy to Ukraine

觀察歐盟統合，歐盟2004 年東擴是一項重要事件，因為透過東擴，歐盟將原屬於共產集團的中東歐國家納入歐盟會員國，並將歐盟價值規範與制度運作融入了中東歐新會員國的政治、經濟與社會生活之中，這一項成就讓歐洲大陸的和平與穩定局面大步向前；歐盟東擴後，歐盟對外關係研究主軸擴散到歐盟與鄰近國家交往，以歐盟睦鄰政策作為主要政策工具。歐盟的基本假定是，如果歐盟東擴取得豐碩成果，歐盟應該繼續複製東擴經驗、以誘因方式繼續向東擴散歐盟的理念與制度。但實際觀察睦鄰政策推動過程，這一套希望以誘因模式達成政策擴散的目標遭遇到許多挑戰，並使睦鄰政策實踐成果不如預期。本文認為，歐盟以誘因為主的政策擴散過程受到干擾、致原先預期發揮的誘因效果受到抵銷，這些干擾來自於：第一，從歐盟睦鄰政策制定過程來看，歐盟內部決策的妥協性削弱誘因效力，這主要是因為會員國地緣政治考量與大爆炸式的東擴，致歐盟現階段對是否積極擴張會員缺乏共識；第二，誘因接受國內部策略選擇產生制約效果，烏克蘭採取兩面討好的外交手段削弱既存誘因效果，左右平衡策略適度減緩烏克蘭面臨的外部改革壓力；第三，外部誘因競爭者干擾歐盟誘因，外部競爭者透過提供誘因替代選項方式衝擊歐盟誘因有效性、也使烏克蘭得以採取兩面策略、遊走於親歐／親俄的平衡路線。
上述因素使歐盟對烏克蘭政策實踐未能取得顯著成果，同時也使歐盟重視的民主化推廣理念遭遇挑戰，本文認為歐盟如要克服上述挑戰，歐盟將首先需要釐清地緣政治與民主化政策目標孰為輕重問題，其次則是重新理順誘因效果、採取更積極的政策誘導模式以促進烏克蘭改革進程，最後則是盡速釐清歐盟與俄羅斯戰略關係，如此歐盟如何對應周邊國家發展也才有更清楚的安排。

The studies of EU's Incentive Policy in its eastern and southern area have gained prominence in the literature. These findings suggest that the top-down/bottom-up norms diffusion and adaptive learning process are helpful for the spread of democratization in new member and acceding states. More recently, after the completion of EU's eastern enlargement, increasing studies are expanded to Eastern European countries; Ukraine and other eastern partners become the focal points of methodological objectives. The advent of European Neighbourhood Policy in 2004 is EU's major external instruments in dealing with the region; it is designed as EU's major democracy promotion instrument. However, the effects of democracy promotion strategy to Ukraine are still pending: the overnight wonder Orange revolution was part of democratization wave after the end of Cold War despite its democratic progress lingered recently. Ukraine's reform process is in the unenviable position of having to choose between East and West. We seek to understand how EU's incentive policy to Ukraine is still on half-way transformation: external incentives model may explain recipient's rational choice in one security environment. We argue that three factors (ENP built-in internal policy competition, Ukraine's domestic competition and external policy competition) are major geopolitics impacts on ENP's effectiveness. This triad has mostly influenced the core performance of Ukraine's democracy progress. We take the position that the effectiveness of democracy promotion lies in the impacts of geopolitics.