台灣雜糧進口價格不確定下之經濟分析

Economics Analysis of Grains & Feeds Import Price Under Uncertainty in Taiwan

本文從雜糧進口商之角度，在預期效用極大的假設下，建立雜糧進口需求模型，以最大概似估計法推估雜糧進口需求實證模型，並進一步模擬分析雜糧進口價格不確定性程度提高下，雜糧進口對國內經濟所產生之影響。研究結果發現：雜糧進口商進口玉米時，面對玉米進口價格不確定性程度提高下之玉米進口量與消費者剩餘、大於面對大豆進口價格不確定程度提高之結果；而雜糧進口商進口大豆時，面對玉米進口價格不確定性程度提高下之大豆進口量與消費者剩餘，反而高於雜糧進口價格確定性下之結果。因此，雜糧進口商在進行相關雜糧進口需求決策制訂時，除考量不同雜糧進口價格之波動與變異程度外，其它相關雜糧進口價格之訊息與雜糧間之互補（或替代）關係亦必須納入雜糧進口商之進口需求決策依據。

The purpose of this study is to develop the theory of Grains & Feeds import demand function under expected utility maximization hypothesis in Taiwan. Otherwise, this study will examine the behavior of Grains & Feeds Importer faced making with Grains & Feeds import demand decisions under conditions of Grains & Feeds import price uncertainty in Taiwan. The empirical result indicates that when Grains & Feeds Importer import the com, the com import quantity and consumer surplus facing increase in corn import price under uncertainty, will larger than results of facing increases in soybean import price under uncertainty; when Grains & Feeds Importer import the soybean, the soybean import quantity and consumer surplus facing increase in corn import price under uncertainty, will larger than results of Grains & Feeds import price under certainty.