新農保對中國農村中老年人口勞動供給之影響─ CHARLS全國基線數據之實證

The Impact of New Rural Social Pension Insurance on the Labor Supply of Rural Elderly in China—Evidence from 2011 National Baseline Data

本研究利用中國健康與養老追蹤調查 (China health and retirement longitudinal study, CHARLS) 2011全國基線數據從勞動供給角度切入，對2009年開始在農村地區實施的新型農村社會養老保險 (簡稱「新農保」) 的政策效果進行評估，探討新農保對農村中老年勞動參與及工作時間之影響效果。在控制新農保和勞動供給的內生性下，實證結果顯示，新農保對農村中老年人的勞動供給產生了排擠效果，顯著減少中老年人的工作時間，但是對於中老年人的勞動參與沒有顯著的影響。參加新農保的中老年人比沒有參加新農保的中老年人年工作時間減少161個小時，對於有工作者平均減少82年工作小時，對60歲以上老年人減少其工作時間的幅度更大更顯著。同時，新農保對農村老年人的勞動參與及工作時間之影響有延後現象，參保時間越久，對勞動供給的排擠效果越明顯。此外，對於男性、健康狀況較差，家庭經濟狀況較不好者，新農保對其工作時間的排擠效果更為明顯。

 

The New Rural Social Pension Insurance (NRSPI) system implemented in 2009 has filled the gap of China’s rural pension system that has been suspended since 1997. In this study, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2011 national baseline data was adopted to evaluate the effectiveness of the NRSPI, from the perspective of labor supply. Empirical findings show that the NRSPI has a “crowding-out effect” on the working hours of rural elders. Paticipating NRSPI significantly lower 161 and 82 working hours annually for entire elders and for working elders, respectively. The NRSPI, however, has insignificant impact on the retirement behaviors of rural elders. Furthermore, these crowding-out effects are increasing with the duration of NRSPI participation. The crowing-out impacts of the NRSPI on working hours are also larger, for men and those with poor health, and those with low family income level.