美中經貿衝突對臺灣產業之經濟影響評估：以臺灣半導體及資通訊產業為例

An Economy-wide Impact Assessment of US-China Trade Friction on Taiwan’s Semiconductor and ICT Industry

儘管美中衝突已被廣泛討論，但各研究機構對於全球經濟受影響的看法仍莫衷一是，且對產業之影響也無量化評估。本文探討2017 至2020 年美中衝突對臺灣半導體與 資通訊產業的經濟影響。本文採用可計算一般均衡模型 (computable general equilibrium, CGE) 及其資料庫，透過與多位產業專家深度訪談，模擬美中摩擦對產業之影響。第一階段使用全球貿易分析模型 (global trade analysis project, GTAP) 分析美中互加關稅10%~25% 下對臺灣總體及各產業部門進出口價格的影響，第二階段則根據第一階段結果及產業專家的看法，使用臺灣可計算一般均衡模型 (general equilibrium model for the Taiwanese economy and environment, GEMTEE) 分析對半導體與資通訊產業之影響。模擬結果顯示美中衝突將對臺灣總體經濟產生負面影響，但衝擊較其他研究機構預估小得多，顯見臺灣廠商將受惠轉單效應。但當關稅提高到25% 時，轉單效果將被總體經濟下滑的影響抵消，且對半導體產業的影響將比對資通訊產業之影響更大。為降低美中衝突對臺灣產業之影響，廠商應致力分散經營風險、增加經營彈性與韌性、加強研發以提高競爭力、導入智慧製造，以因應美中摩擦之衝擊。本文著重由下而上(bottom-up) 的研究方法，透過與產業專家之討論，共同檢視情境設定與參數校準，使模擬結果更趨合理並符合實務情況，作為業者在美中衝突持續下，營運調整之參考依據。

 

Although the issue about the US-China friction has been widely discussed, views about the impact by research institutions are diversifying, and there is little empirical study on individual industries. This article explores the economic impact of the US-China friction on Taiwan’s semiconductor and ICT (Information and Communication Technology) industry from 2017 to 2020. This paper uses the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Input-Output table to simulate the impact of the US-China friction on industries through in-depth interviews with industry experts. In the first stage, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) are used to analyze the impact of 10%~25% tariffs imposed by the United States and China on Taiwan’s macro-economy and the import and export prices of individual industries. Based on the results of the first stage and the opinions of industry experts, the second stage uses the General Equilibrium Model for Taiwanese Economy and Environment (GEMTEE) model to analyze the impact on Taiwan’s semiconductor and ICT industry. The simulation results show that the US-China friction will have a negative impact on Taiwan’s macro-economy, but the impact is much smaller than the estimates of some research institutions, which shows that Taiwanese manufacturers will benefit from the order transfer effect. However, when the tariff is increased to 25%, the order transfer effect will be largely offset by the impact of the global economic downturn, and the impact on the semiconductor industry will be greater than the impact on the ICT industry. To reduce the impact of the US-China friction on Taiwan’s industries, manufacturers should strive to diversify business risks, increase business flexibility and resilience, strengthen R&D to improve competitiveness, and introduce smart manufacturing to cope with the impact of US-China friction. The feature of this study is an emphasis on bottom-up research methods. Through repeated discussions with industry experts, the situation settings and parameter calibration are reviewed to make the simulation more reasonable and in line with practical conditions. Under the continued confrontation between the United States and China in the future, the result can be the reference direction for business operation adjustment.