形成中的東亞共同體

The Emerging East Asian Community in the Asia-Pacific Area

本文從過去十餘年來東亞與東南亞經貿整合的角度來探討整體亞太政經形勢的變遷與重組，以及本區域內幾個主要國家的角色變更。本文的主要論點認為如果東亞共同體能在未來十年左右時間順利成形與運作，對於自二次大戰以後一直主導亞太政經事務的美國，是一大挫敗；美國的角色將逐漸成為東亞區域政治權力的分享者、經貿事務的競爭者與軍事安全的監督者；東亞各國的自主能力大幅提高，而中國和日本將會主導東亞共同體的運作與發展事務，說如同德國與法國在歐盟的主導地位一般。雖然作者認為中日的角色日益重要，但是在中短期（五至十年）內，東亞共同體的運作與功能仍然是在摸索中緩步前進；至於歐盟的經貿整合程度，在可預見的將來，對東亞各國而言仍僅僅是一個目標而已。

This article deals with, first, the reorganization of the Asia-Pacific area's political and economic landscape from the perspective of East Asian regional economic and political integration since the end of the Cold War. Secondly, this article discusses the changing role of major players in the area.The major argument of this article is that the United States of America will face a critical setback in foreign policy toward East Asia if the East Asian Community is to formulate and function in the coming decade. The US roles in East Asia will shift from a military, political, and economic dominator to share political power to compete in economic and trade affairs, and to supervise or arbitrate, in security affairs. In East Asia, China and Japan will emerge as the co-leaders in political and economic affairs.