二００四年美國總統選舉分析

An Analysis of the 2004 American Presidential Election

本論文目的是探討二○○四年美國總統選舉，試圖闡釋該選舉結果的特色與意義、分析布希當選原因以及評估本次選舉對未來美國政治的影響，文中引用選舉類型和投票行為兩組模式作為分析架構。研究結果顯示此次選舉屬於維持現狀結盟選舉，這對布希總統和共和黨而言乃重大政治勝利。不過，布希當選原因並非來自任內政績表現或未來政策主張，兩者皆未獲得多數選民認可；相對的，主要是基於布希競選團隊有效認知美國中長期政治走向有利共和黨選情，並在選舉策略上知所配合運用，從選舉結果證明該策略發揮效用。共和黨在未來應有持續結盟發展空間，但是不應抱持過於樂觀看法，還須決定在布希政府的施政作為、民主黨政治策略和選民團體的認同。至於政黨重組結盟的可能性，目前言之過早，尚不具發展條件，兩黨選民結構大致穩定，而且雙方都維持高度競爭能力。

The aim of the research is to analyze the 2004 American presidential election by examining the outcome of the election, exploring the reasons for the Bush win, and providing an assessment on the influence of the election for American political development. Two models of election type and voting behavior are employed as the analytical framework. The result of the research indicates that the 2004 election is the alignment type which should be seen as a victory for President Bush as well as the Republican Party. However, the reelection of President Bush did not come from restrospective or prospective voting; rather it was secured by sociological voting with the aid of campaign strategies. It seems that the Bush campaign advisers successfully perceived the conservative political development trend and pushed to consolidate support by raising issues such as anti-gay marriage and moral values. In prospect, the Republicans may gain support for on-going party alignment but this may be too optimistic since it is still conditioned by many other factors. No possibility oxists for party realignment in the near future.