攻守理論爭辯之評析

Critical Analysis of the Offense-Defense Theory

「攻守理論」自一九七○年代晚期出現以來，已成為國際關係研究中一個重要部分，且獲得廣泛的應用。然而理論中存有許多因果邏輯上的爭議與不清晰的基本概念，在一九九○年代掀起了理論性的論辯並一直持續至今。攻守理論目前有三個主要的爭論焦點，其一是有關「攻守平衡」的基本定義，其二是攻守理論中科技因素的相關辯論，第三則是攻守平衡操作化與檢驗的問題。本文意圖對此三組爭論主題的各種意見作一概括性的評論與分析。本文發現，理論中各項問題都可以適當地予以處理，攻守理論並非在邏輯上與實證上都有嚴重的錯誤，值得持續研究。

Offense-defense theory had become an important element in international relation studies since the 1970s. However, because offense-defense theory has some unclear concepts and disagreements about its causal logic, these questions introduced serious debate throughout the 1990s. Three major issues provoke debate. The first one regards the basic definition of 'offense-defense balance'; the second regards the technological factors of the theory; and the third one regards testing and implementation of the theory. This article will summarize and review these debates and argues that the offense-defense theory does not logically or empirically have faults. All the these questions can be appropriately solved. The offense-defense theory is relevant and in need of further study.