民主化與台海和平之分析

Democratization and Peace in the Taiwan Strait

二十世紀末期，人類政治史上最特殊的現象就是「第三波」民主化浪潮席捲全球，使得新興民主國家急遽增加。故當代全球化下的一個重要內容就是民主化。然而，根據美國「自由之家」最新的統計（二○○二～二○○三年），我們可以發現：所謂「第三波」全球民主化的進展似乎已經接近尾聲。台灣自一九九六年總統直選後說一直被列入自由民主國家的行列，且被學者評為民主轉型的典範之一，現在大家的目光焦點正集中在中國是否可能進行「第四波」的民主化運動。當代社會科學最著名的發現之一就是：「民主國家間從未發生戰爭」。儘管鞏固的民主國家間可能不會相互戰爭，但民主化過程中若發生民主倒退的現象，則會增加戰爭的可能性；雖然民主化過程不必然會導致戰爭，但崎嶇而不穩定的民主轉型會使國際戰爭發生的機率增加。因此，民主化正是兩岸永久和平的關鍵；第四波民主化的浪潮若降臨在中國並順利推動達成民主鞏固，最終的和平才可能普及於全世界。本文旨在瞭解全球化下的民主化浪潮，辯明民主化與戰爭、和平的關係，分析台灣民主化的經驗，探討中國民主化的可能性，進而思索台海和平的展望。

The most striking global phenomenon at the end of the 20th century was the rapid spread of 'third-wave democratization' and the new democracies as a result. After having held direct presidential elections, Taiwan has been regarded as a democratic country and praised as a paradigm for democratic transition. At present, whether democratization will take place in China attracted global attention because it has been known in social sciences that democratic nations don't fight each other, although unstable, staggering transition may increase the possibility of war. Given that, only when China embarks on democratic transition and consolidation in the fourth wave of democratization will we see the light for lasting global peace.The main purpose of this study is to understand globalization and to clarify the correlations between democratization, war and peace. In the meantime, the article analyzes Taiwan's democratization as well as the possibility of democratization in China and gives some thoughts on the development of cross-strait relations in the future.