從層次分析探討霸權穩定論：一個國際關係理論演化的研究方法

Level-of-Analysis and Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Evolutionary Approach to International Relations Theory

有關霸權穩定論（hegemonic stability theory）之研究，一直是國際關係學者研究國際衝突與合作或國際秩序最重要的理論之一。儘管有關霸權穩定的理論，在一九八○年代曾一度被視為過時，但後冷戰時期美國國力的崛起，令國際關係學者再次重視霸權相關理論；然而有關後冷戰時期吾人是否可用霸權穩定論來解釋目前國際政治之權力平衡，卻仍是見仁見智。作者在此論文中，主張霸權穩定論之學說自一九七○年代被提出以來，已歷經了多次之「演化」（evolution）；而此霸權穩之論之「演化」，在理論上，涉及現實主義與自由主義之整合（synthesis）；在研究方法上，則涉及層次分析（level-of-analysis）的問題。針對此，作者以層次分析與跨層分析（cross level analysis）的角度來探討霸權穩定論之演化，並提出「控制論模型」（cybernetics model）以「正」、「反」、「合」的論述方式，來說明層次分析在霸權穩定論演化研究途徑之意涵。

Hegemonic stability theory had been one of the most important IR theories from 1945 to the mid 1970s. As a result of the deterioration of the U.S. economy and burden of the U.S. military and security budget, this theory was considered obsolete in the 1980s. However, the robustness of U.S. power in the post-Cold War era has led to the revival of the so-called 'U.S. hegemon,' and hence this theory has again become a cornerstone in the field of international cooperation and international order. However, many scholars are now reluctant to use 'hegemon' to describe America's leadership in international politics. This caution reflects not only the debate about the validity of the theory of hegemonic stability, but more importantly, the need for an evolutionary approach in IR theory. Building on the level-of-analysis approach, this paper proposes the 'cybernetics model' to characterize the 'evolution' of hegemonic stability theory and shed light on the research method of IR theory.