雁行理論與日本的東亞經驗

The Flying Geese Theory and Japan's East Asian Experience

許多理都曾被用於研究東亞的發展經驗。國家中心論、文化詮釋與社會關係網路分析都是中犖犖大者，學者亦偶爾提及雁行理論。然而，雁行理論一直沒有得到完整的認識與理解，以致相關研究不是各說各話，就是明顯不足。國外對雁行理論的研究雖未如其他理論典範那麼盛行，二十年來卻也不絕如縷。只是支持與批評者認智因理論圖像不同，以致爭論缺乏明顯的交集。另一方面，國內對雁行理論的認識與研究始終貧乏，對國外的論戰似乎亦漠不關心。部分人士甚至望文生義，動輒斷定雁行理論已經破產，不足以解釋東亞發展經驗，僅有少數專注於台商FDI與產業分工。有鑑於此，本文擬論述國外支持、批評雁行理論的研究，勾勒較完整的雁行理論，並探討雁行理論如停及能否解釋東亞發展經驗。本論文第一部分述明撰文意旨，提出分析性問題，第二部份介紹支持、批評雁行理論的論述與研究，第三部份簡要描述雁行理論的原初論題與當代雁行理論的架構，第四部分探討雁行理論與東亞金融危機的關係，特別是雁行模式是否造成東亞金融危機，以及金融危機是否瓦解雁行模式。第五部分為結論。

A variety of theories have been formulated to study the developmental experiences of East Asian newly industrialized countries. State-centric theory, cultural interpretation, and network analysis based on social relations are the major ones. Occasionally, the flying geese theory (or model) was mentioned. However, the flying geese theory has been employed with an imperfect understanding, especially in Taiwan, so much so that research based on the flying geese theory has been characterized by a number of misunderstandings. On the one hand, researchers and critics in the Anglo-Saxon academic community have been engaging in debates without a common conceptual framework; on the other hand, the flying geese theory has never been fully understood in Taiwan and critics tended to criticize the theory by common sense reasoning or narrow the focus on economic indicators, such as the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index that is calculated and compiled by few economists only. In view of this poor understanding, the author briefly introduces the conceptual framework of the theory and examines empirical data to explore whether the East Asian flying formation has collapsed and whether the theory has lost its explanatory and descriptive power in the light of the East Asian financial crisis at the end of the 20th century and of Japan's chronic economic stagnation.