美國小布希政府對台軍售之分析：維持兩岸軍力平衡

George W. Bush's Arms Sales Policy to Taiwan: Maintaining Cross-Strait Military Balance

小布希新政府上台後，隨即批准了歷來美國最大宗的對台軍售，其中包含了八艘柴電潛艇與四艘紀德級驅逐艦。由於潛艇一向被認為是攻擊性的武器，此批軍售被視為是美台關係一大突破。然而在筆者以相對的觀點（不僅將美國對台軍售項目與同級裝備何時進入美國部隊服役做比較，也與美國同項軍備出售其他國家的時間比較）回顧美國對台軍售歷史，評估兩岸軍力，並探索中共近年的軍力擴張後，發現美國一直遵守著台灣關係法的精神，隨著中共軍力的成長，提供台灣相對需要的軍備，以確保兩岸軍力平衡。過去美國儘管在許多售台武器的性能上予以消減，但對於台灣迫切的防衛需求，也並未吝於出售最新的科技。在較無攻擊性的項目上，美國甚且曾售台與其本國部隊相當的裝備。綜而言之，美國對台軍售政策有高度的連貫性，小布希政府政策僅是延續過去的路線，並無重大變化。

In April 2001, U. S. President George Bush, Jr. approved the biggest arms sales package to Taiwan, which includes eight diesel submarines and four Kidd-class destroyers. Since submarine is considered an offensive weapon system, this approval is interpreted by many as a U.S. policy shift tilting toward Taiwan. The authors scrutinize the history of American arms sales to Taiwan form a relative perspective, comparing the time when a weapon system was sold to Taiwan and when it went into service in the U.S. forces as well as the time when the Untied States sold the same system to other friendly nations, taking into consideration the defense and offense capability of each weapon system. Through such scrutiny and a review of military capabilities of Taipei and Beijing, the authors find a consistent US policy to maintain cross-strait military balance. In light of this finding and recent PRC arms buildup, the Bush Administration's arms sale to Taiwan is merely a continuation of US policy to abide by the Taiwan Relations Act in making available to Taiwan defense articles necessary for Taiwan to defend itself.