冷戰結束後的北約與國際關係理論

NATO in the Post-Cold War Era and International Relations Theories

冷戰期間兩大集團對峙的國際格局於一九八○年代末期解體，使得維持西方世界安全的北大西洋公約組織面對外在環境的巨大變遷，北約的存廢遂成為後冷戰時期國際政策的學者與執行者辯論的焦點。國際關係學者紛紛從不同的理論預測或解釋北約在後冷戰時期的發展，例如北約是否有繼續存在的必要、聯盟功能的維持或轉換、組織的運作與維護，以及相關角色對於北約產生的價值與認同等面向。新現實主義首先就北約的續存提出悲觀的預期，認為一個軍事聯盟賴以生存的外部威脅消失後，這個聯盟也將隨之解體；但之後新自由制度主義者提供不同的預測，豐富了後冷戰時期國際關係學者從理論層次討論北約存廢的論證。除了這兩個主流理論外，在一九九○年代才逐漸發展成為一個成熟理論的社會建構主義在北約存廢的辯論中著墨較少，但其論論基礎對於國際體系與國家的互動提供不同的解釋工具，在北約的生存與未來的發展方面將有更大的發揮空間。本文將勾勒出這三個主要國際關係理論分別以權力、利益與知識為基礎的中心假設，並著重在理論對於國際建制或軍事聯盟的產生、維繫與衰亡的研究，接著探討這三個國際關係理論對於後冷戰時期北約存廢問題的預測與解釋，再就各理論對北約的討論歸結出理論的適用性與缺失。

As a result of the collapse of bipolarity of international system in the late 1980s, dramatic changes provide an opportunity for academics and practitioners in international relations to review questions concerning the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Scholars have predicted or interpreted the developments of a post-cold war NATO, such as the survival or dissolution of the alliance, change and continuation of organization functions, its practice and maintenance, and altering identities and interests of NATO. Among international relations theorists, neorealists anticipate a collapse or decline of NATO on the ground that the demise of the external threat would be followed by the dissolution of the winning alliance. On the contrary, neoliberal institutionalists offer a different prediction based upon the major assumptions of the theory. In addition to these two mainstream theories, social constructivism, a new school of thought developed in the 1990s, has provided students of international relations with different approaches to understanding the interactions between international systems and nations´ behavior. Although works on post-cold war NATO by social constructivists are relatively marginal, these theories can be better employed to explain the social aspects of NATO'S development.This article will depict the key arguments of these power-based, interests-based, and knowledge-based theories, followed by scholarly discussions centering on creation, endurance, cohesion, and collapse of international regimes or military alliances. Then, the predictions of and interpretations for NATO in the post-cold war era by international relations theorists will be illustrated including the theories efficacy or inadequacy.