國際社會對於緬甸朝野對峙的困境與前景

The Stalemate on Burma's Road to Democratization

緬甸所處的特殊地緣位置和長期實施的鎖國與愚民政策，使得西方社會所採行的國際正義與封鎖策略無報達到改善緬甸政經狀況的目標。比較有效的方法應該是結合中共與東協的力量，共同向緬甸軍政府施壓，才有可能迫使緬甸軍政府逐沖往正途發展。而中共也唯有在此類事件中表現出大國的影響力，才有資格成為被國際社會尊敬的成員，否則中共仍然是一個充滿擴張企圖的區域強權，國際社會還要嚴密監是其日益強大的軍事力量。

The Western World's policies of military and economic sanctions have not produced the original goal of improving Burma' economic, social, and political situation, due to the latter's unique geographic position, long-term isolationist policy, and anti-intellectual strategy domestically. While mainland China was the Burmese military government's only supporter in the early and middle 1990s, ASEAN has become Burma's major cheerleader since 1997. Therefore, the more effective way of forcing Burma's military government to change its suppressive policy is a strategy that combines mainland China and ASEAN's influence and that can coerce Burma's military to reach a compromise with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy. Mainland China could paly a positive role in this effort.