論裡海能源與外高加索地區安全之關係

On the Relationship between the Caspian Energy and Transcaucasian Security

裡海之石油與天然質的蘊藏量到底有多少，至今莫衷一是，但已吸引十餘國前往開發，使得這股熱潮仍會維持一段時間。西方重視裡海之因，包括希望擺脫「石油輸出國家組織」牽制油價、反制沙烏地阿拉伯企圖領導世界石油市場與中共將可能在裡海擔任要角色。外高加索三國中之亞美尼亞正面臨政經選擇之兩難、阿塞拜疆正以能源管線強化與西方之關係、格魯吉亞目前是掌握能源出口與反恐的有利地位。至於裡海與外高加索地區其實已成為一體，雖然俄、美對裡海之能源安全觀不同，但在今後土耳其、伊朗與中共會更會視本地區。

There is no agreement of opinion on the totals amount of oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian Sea. More than ten countries have invested in the development of this energy, however, and this enthusiasm is likely to be sustained for years. The West hopes the energy in this area can counter balance the power of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and resist Saudi Arabia's attempts to dominate the global oil market. It also demonstrated U.S. concern over a prominent role for China in the future.Among these countries in the Transcaucasian area, Armenia is facing a dilemma of making a choice between pulling her troops out from occupied Azerbaijan's territory or believing that a natural gas pipeline will be built from Baku for Erevan's energy shortage; Azerbaijan is trengthening her relations with the West by means of constructing energy pipelines; and Georgia is assuming an advantageous positions on export and anti-terrorism.As to the importance of the two, both Caspian energy asnd Transaucasian security in fact are two sides of the same coin. Howvevr, Turkey, Iran, and China will pay more attention from now on to these areas in spite of the different security views on energy held by Moscow and Washington.