兩韓和解與東北亞新秩序

Korean Peninsula Reconciliation and the New Northeast Asian Order

朝鮮半島在東北亞乃至亞太地區都具有極為重要的戰略位置，朝鮮半島問題的和平解決不僅關係到南北韓之間的安全、穩定與發展，同時也牽動東北亞地區各國的安全與利益，南北韓緊張關係的緩和並建立永久和平機制，即是東北亞地區各國和平共處的基礎，也是建立東北亞國際新秩序的重要關鍵。朝鮮半島長久以來一直是大國關係盤根錯節、錯綜複雜的區域，是美、日、俄、中共四強利益衝突的交匯處，南北韓不論在政治、經濟、軍事、國防安全等方面與四強維持著密切互動關係，因此朝鮮半島情勢的變化不僅受到四強政策和利益調整的影響和制約，相同的南北韓出現緩和趨勢也會對四強的東北亞政策造成影響。朝鮮半島如果根據兩金的共同宣言順利推動和解，則整個東北亞的國際政治結構將產生根本的變化，東北亞地區的國際新秩序，將以經濟合作與交流取代意識形態和軍事的對抗，以對話和協商為主流，逐步降低軍備競賽和政治衝突的可能性，大國在地區安全事務中應發揮領導作用，共同為建立本地區的持久和平與穩定而努力。

The Korean Peninsula occupies an extremely important strategic position in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. Whether the Korean Peninsula issue can be solved peacefully not only affects the security, stability, and development of North Korea and South Korea, but also has influence on the security and interests of all Northeast Asian countries. Relaxation of tension between the two Koreas and the establishment of a permanent peace mechanism are the foundations of peaceful coexistence for Northeast Asian countries. They are also key factors up on which the establishment of a new international Northeast Asian order hinges.The peninsula has long been a flash point where complicated conflicts of interests among the United States, Japan, Russia, and the PRC converge. North Korea and South Korea have both maintained close interactions with these four powers in such realms as politics, economics, military affairs, and national defense. Therefore, changes in the situation of the Korean Peninsula are influenced and conditioned by the policy and interest readjustments of the four powers. Similarly, movements toward detente between the two Koreas also has influence on the Northeast Asian policy of these powers.If rapprochement is smoothly promoted according to the joint declaration of Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong I1, fundamental changes will take place in the international political structure of Northeast Asia. In the new international order of Northeast Asia, ideological and military confrontation will be replaced with economic cooperation and exchanges. Dialogues and consultations will become mainstream and the possibility for arms races and political conflicts will gradually be reduced. The four powers should play a leading role in regional security affairs and jointly work for lasting peace and stability in this area.