外高加索三國之政情與俄羅斯對該地區的政策

Current Political Developments in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia: Russia's Foreign Policy towards the Transcaucasian Region

外高加索三國政經的「西化」起惡已近十年，但一路走來卻始終不見穩當，國內的政爭與民族問題混為一團，經濟改格難以有效實施；又當大國為求自身戰略利益而有心介入時，區域形勢演變更顯複雜。近幾年來，大小國家積極鑽營能源，結果福也石油，禍亦石油；不安是因石油而引起，安定仍須藉力石油。俄羅斯對外高加索政策已歷經兩屆總統與三屆外長，影響政策更張之主要原因，不外於俄國追求國家利益對國際強權政經軍事擴張後之反應，是為他自給獲得友善回應，抑或遭受冷漠排斥對待；是為地區帶來緊張疑慮，或讓三國信任合平保證，雙邊看法各有不同；如今已進入二十一世紀，大家多少均抱持一些期盼，但惟有一團合氣方能有福同享、利益均霑。

The Westernization of political and economic development in the three countries in the Trans-Caucasian region-Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia has been occurring for nearly ten years. This path has not been smooth, however, as evidenced by political struggles based on ethnic issues and ineffectiveness in implementing economic reforms. When great powers intervened in the region for the sake of their won strategic interests, the situation became even more complicated. In recent years, countries big and small have been actively pursuing the extraction of natural resources in the area. Petroleum has become both the impetus for prosperity as well as the cause for economic woes, being both the agent of instability and the source of stability.After three foreign ministers and two presidents, Russia has substantially shifted its policy towards this region. There are various interpretations as to the effects of this change. Some argue that Russia has gained friendly feedback; others contend that it has been given a cold shoulder. Some feel that Russia brings tension to the region; others view Moscow as the trusted guarantor of peace. As we enter the 21st century, there remains a moderate level of expectation for Russia's role in the region. Only by maintaining cordial relations can these countries reap the benefits of common interests.