軍事政變的成因、結果與影響：泰國個案研究

The Causes, Outcomes, and Effects of Military Coups: The case of Thailand

不論在政治發展或民主化研究中，軍事政變都是一個重要的議題。過去研究者大部著重在政變成因的分析，忽略政變結果及其影響的探討；這對政變研究而言是一大瑕疵。因為不論政變是成功或失敗，均會對政治過程生影響；而政變在社會與經濟層面所產生的效應，將會對爾後的政變造成反饋。泰國就是符合上述論點的一個例子。自一九三二年開展憲政迄今，泰國共舉行過19次全國大選，也經歷了19次軍事政變。雖然政治過程深陷「惡性循環」的泥淖，但卻在民主化潮流中創造出泰國的「半民主」成果。泰政治中軍事政變的意義與內涵，顯然有別於一般的概念。本文嘗試建構泰國政變原因分析模型，再由政變發生的「頻率」區劃出泰國政變在時間序列上的「間歇性」與「階段性」，並自「群眾運動」與「泰王角色」兩面向探討影響泰國政變成敗的因素，以及政變的效應與反饋。

Military coup d'etat has always been treated as an important topic in both the areas of political development and democratization. However, most studies in the past two decades paid much attention to the analysis of the causes of coups instead of exploring their outcome and effects. Regardless of success or failure, coups do impact the political process. In addition, the socio-economic effects caused by a coup can affect possible future military takeover attempts.Thailand is a typical example of the above argument. Since the first constitution was promulgated in 1932, there have been 19 general elections accompanied by 19 military coups. Despite this 'vicious circle,' the Thais have created a 'semi-democracy' in the third wave of global democratization.This article begins with an examination of the theories and approaches of coup studies. It then attempts to build up a causal model for the analysis of Thai coups. It demonstrates the 'intermittence' and 'phases' of Thai coups by way of calculating their 'frequencies,' and tries to explain the causes, as well as the outcome and effects, of Thai coups through two dimensions: mass movements and the role of the King.