墨西哥民主化運動之發展近況

Recent Developments in Mexico's Democratization

素以「一黨獨大」著稱的墨西哥革命制度黨（PRI）在一九九七年七月期中選舉中喪失了該黨在眾議院六十多年來絕對多數的立法優勢。此一現象發生的原因，就政治層面而言為政黨制度和選舉制度不斷改革的結果，就經濟層面而言乃財經政策自由化不可避免的政治衝擊。觀察墨國該次選舉後政治經濟的發展，公元兩千年總統大選唯一可確定的是充滿「不確定性」，而這正是「民主化運動」最有效的指標。

In the elections of July 1997, the PRI-known for its dominant position among Mexican political parties-lost its majority in the Chamber of Deputies. The causes of this phenomenon are due to both politics and economics. Politically , the failure is the result of the continuous reforms of the party and the election systems. Economically, the election loss was triggered by the inevitable political impacts attributable to economic liberalization. In observation of Mexico's post-election political economy, the author finds that in the 2000 presidential election, the only certainty will be uncertainty, which is exactly the most effective indicator of democratization.