中共對美國「戰區飛彈防衛計畫」的態度

PRC Concern over the American TMD Initiative

中共對美國的戰區飛彈防衛系統抱持懷疑態度。其原因有兩大項。首先是和長程彈道飛彈有關的國際戰略情勢，中共擔心，美國正在發展的陸上與海上高層攔截系統具有攔截略飛彈能力，加上美國擬發展的能強大的太空監測系統，其結果是使中共數量有限的戰略飛彈將失去嚇阻作用，使中共的「最低嚇阻」戰略失效。同時，中共以擁有戰略核武做為大國的象徵將失去作用，中共將不再成為強權大國。其次，中共關心戰區飛彈防衛系統影響其區域戰略。中共認為，日本要從建立戰區飛彈防衛系統擴充軍事力量而成為政治大國。中共也關心戰區飛彈防衛系統使美國再度正式介入兩岸關係，對其統一台灣有不利的影響。中共擔心的許多說法立論不足。本文擬對此做說明。

There are two major reasons for the PRC to be concerned with the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system. The first has to do with strategic missile-related international security. Beijing is concerned that the land-and sea-based upper-tier interceptor system and space-based powerful surveillance system developed by the United States will render China's limited strategic missiles useless, and consequently China's minimum deterrence strategy will lose credibility.Secondly, the TMD may affect regional balance in a way unfavorable to China. Japan may expand her military force through participation in the TMD, gaining political influence in the East Asian region. The TMD deployment will give the United States opportunity to be formally involved in Taiwan again, an act that will have a negative impact on China's reunification policy. Some of China's concerns, however, are not convincing.