台灣加入「戰區飛彈防禦」計畫之評析

An Analysis and Evaluation of Taiwan's TMD Project

一九九六年二月中共在台灣周邊海域進行飛彈演習，此引起台灣和美國方面對彈道飛彈防禦更深的關切，而美國的亞太「戰區飛彈防禦」計畫，亦希望台灣能納入該防禦計畫之中，並分擔部分研發經費。面對中共彈道飛彈與未來其即將要部署的巡弋飛彈，對台灣而言，飛彈防禦是台灣國防上一項困難度極大，但卻又甚為重要的任務。然美國亞太戰略中的「戰區飛彈防禦」將台灣納入其中，卻很可能產生大規模毀滅性武器擴散的問題，此將會造成其「戰區飛彈防禦」戰略兩難之局面。基於中共飛彈之威脅，台灣實亟欲希望建立反飛彈防禦體系，然對此，卻有正反兩面不同之見解。而吾人則認為台灣加入「戰區飛彈防禦」計畫，對其軍事安全之作用，恐怕是相當微弱的，此亦是本文所需深入評估和分析者。

In March of 1996, The People's Republic of China (PRC) conducted missile tests in the Taiwan Strait, thus raising the interest of Taiwan and the US in a ballistic missile defense for this area. Today, the US hopes to include Taiwan in the Asia-Pacific Theatre Missile Defense (TMD) Program and would like to share the development costs of the research and development of TMD with Taiwan.To confront future PRC ballistic and cruise missiles, Taiwan needs a missile defense system. However, the inclusion of Taiwan into the Asia-Pacific Strategic TMD could possibly lead to increased proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. This possibity thus poses a dilemma for the US.Under missile threat from the PRC, Taiwan authorities indeed hope to construct an anti-missile defense system. This paper seeks an in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of pursuing such a strategy.