區域意識、政黨認同與加拿大選民投票行為之長期分析

Regionalism, Party Identification, and Canadian Electoral Behavior: A Longitudinal Analysis

當代加拿大選民的投票行，多變而難測。其原因是地廣人稀，但人口的分布及經濟展又長期失衡，加以立國之始即有法英兩大殖民群之對立。一次大戰後，前者且要在其集中之魁省獨立自決，故加人之區域意識一向強烈，因而省區性之第三黨不時興起，以示抗議或抗衡，所以國家同產生危機，魁北克問題迄未解決。上述之第三黨且參與聯邦選舉，對兩大黨（保守或自由）形成關鍵性的少數黨，促成傳統的兩大黨之社會基礎解組，故而選民對兩大黨的認同感薄弱，以致有三分之二的多數成為彈性政黨認同者，其投票行為接近獨立選民。因此在大選時，他們多受短期變數之政黨政見及訴求，和政黨領袖形象的支配，而改變其投票行為，造成當代十三次大選，僅有八次產生了多數黨內閣。而兩黨輸流組閣執政的制度，至九三年保守黨瓦解後，形成自由黨一黨獨大，目前有五個反對黨。因而加國的攻黨型態正處於解組與重組的過程之中。若不久之未來，魁省公投獨立，則自由黨之獨大也難維持。然而若就當代的加國公民投票行為而論，他們可謂是善變的選民。

The voting behavior of the Canadian electorate has been very changeable, due to the regional conflicts and loyalties associated with its founding and development into an extremely complex federal system. The deep-rooted regionalism has socialized every Canadian to be a member of a political community that possesses two systems of political parties, the federal and the provincial. This means that the same party at the two levels may have different competitive policy positions and strategies. In addition to the two federal brokerage parties-Liberal and Conservative-there have often emerged third parties and regional or provincial parties. Therefore, Canadian voters often develop separate party loyalties at the federal and provincial levels. Two-thirds of Canadian voters are either split-identifiers or flexible partisans. They are close to independent voters, particularly sensitive to short-term forces in the campaign, including the personalities of leaders, party performance and style, and the occurrence of new and often unforeseen political events. These concerns often far outweigh factors such as ideology, group loyalty, or other longer-term forces.Volatility and change are hardly new to Canadian electoral politics. National election surveys, conducted regularly since 1965, reveal an electorate which is prone to sudden and often dramatic swings in voting choice. Of the dozen federal elections which have taken place since the Conservative leader, John Diefenbacker, first ended the long period of Liberal dominance of Canadian federal politics in 1957, five elections have been won by the Progressive Conservatives and seven by the Liberals. However, five of these twelve elections resulted in minority governments, with third parties polling 25% or more of the total votes cast. The demise of the Conservatives, together with the sudden rise of the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec Province and the Reform Party in the West Region, made the results of 1993 election seem particularly dramatic. This is because the support which the Conservatives gained in their 1988 victory completely fragmented in 1993, with defectors dividing equally between Reform and Liberals. Thus, a fundamental dealignment of the Canadian party system has been approaching completion. At present, the realignment of Canadian party system and the problem of Canadian national unity are all in a state of uncertainty.