印尼政治格局的持續與演變

Continuity and Change in indonesian Politics

眾所矚目的印尼國會大選，在充滿選舉火爆氣氛的陰影和社會不安之中，於今年五用廿九日順利完成。這次選舉是蘇哈托新秩序政府於一九六七年成立以來所舉行的第六次國會選舉。印尼政府將本次國選舉形容為「民主嘉年華」，以顯示印邁向民主化和政黨政治的康莊大道。然而，本次選舉前後，印尼許多地區發生近卅年來所罕見的政治暴力事件，在野黨指責選舉過程弊端叢生，執政黨不擇手打壓反對黨以贏得選舉，使得政府自詡為「民主嘉華」的選舉形成對民主的一大諷刺。執政的從業集團在本次國會選舉以百分之七十點二的得票率獲得了壓倒性的勝利，不僅鞏固了蘇哈托新秩序政府的權力基礎，同時也意味著未來五年國會改選之前印尼政治格局不致產生戲劇性巨變。不過，這次選舉也再次凸顯了社會大眾要求進一步推動民主改革、社會公義及經濟平等的呼聲。此外，這次選舉結果顯示印一黨獨大的政治格局絲毫未有改變。然而，這次選舉也顯示印尼政黨政治已邁入另一新階段，而三大主要改黨之間彼此勢力的消漲、回教政治影響力和伊斯蘭教意識形態的復甦、以及新秩序政府與武裝部隊及青年學生關係的微妙變化，意味著印政治格局在持續不變狀況中隱藏著未來演變的政治與社會變數。本文旨在剖析這次印尼國會選舉的結果與涵義，並就可能影響未來印尼政局演變的關鍵因素，提出研析。

The Indonesian parliamentary elections were held on May 29, 1997 amid tension in the wake of political violence in which nearly 300 people were killed. It was the most violent confrontation since the New Order regime of Suharto was established in 1967. The Indonesian government had hoped that the election would proceed in the manner of a 'democratic carnival,' but it turned out to be one of the most violent election campaigns in Indonesian History, and indication that democratic pluralism and party politics still have a long way to go in Indonesia. The ruling Golongan Karya wor a landslide victory; the Muslim Coalition of United Development Party made some head way; and the Indonesian Democratic Party encountered a major defeat. The election results mean that Indonesian politics will continue to be characterized by one-party dominance in the nest five years. However, the elections also showed that demands for reform and democratization have become more vocal and new social forces have emerged amid economic growth. The revival of Islamic culture has also increased Moslem political strength and influence, and could become a potential ingredient for political transformation in the years to come.