經濟變量與效用函數聯合決策之投標策略評估

Bidding Strategy Evaluation for Joint Decision Making of Economic Variables and Utility Function

傳統的競標理論模型是以取得工程個案為要件，主要探討個案的得標機率與出標價格問題，並以出標價格與得標機率高低訂出期望利潤值，作為投標的參考，但是在目前競爭激烈的營造市場，業者必須從整體性的觀點作決策性的競標。本案例考量經濟環境變化，以財務管理的客觀經濟分析探討利率、通貨膨脹率、再投資報酬率等經濟變量，結合決策者效用函數的主觀評估各個案間相關係數及信賴區間的改變，進一步獲得不同報酬率下的最大期望效用增量之最適毛報酬率及出標價格，幫助決策者能做出更適合本身且最具競爭力的競標決策。

 

Traditionally, bidding theory model its fact is mainly winning the project, investigation the bidding probabilities of the bidding price and to consider, their expected profit value as the reference for bidding. But now the construction market is more competitive than before. So contractors must integrate their viewpoint for strategic bidding. This case study considers the economic environment changes, objectively uses the economic variables and subjectively evaluates the utility function to get the optimal return rate and the bid price at the maximum expected utility increasing under interest rate, inflation rate, reinvestment rate and other economic environment variables, to help decision-makers can make more suited to their own and the most competitive bidding strategy.