新北市汐止區山坡地社區坡地災害衝擊評估之研究

A Study on the Slopeland Hazard Impact of Hillside Residential Communities in Xizhi District, New Taipei City

本研究旨於研提山坡地社區坡地災害衝擊評估方法，其中危害度以「整合崩塌-土石流災害潛勢評估模式」為基礎，後果指數於村里尺度「坡地災害家戶損失模型」，社區尺度參考內政部建築研究所(2009)「社區後果指數」成果，結合崩塌及土石流土石堆積高度及影響範圍，完成村里及社區單元風險計算，最後結合兩種不同尺度風險評估成果，境況模擬極端降雨情境，完成山坡地社區衝擊程度評估分析，提供主管機關進行詳細調查、監測管理及災害調適策略研擬參考，期防患於未然，減少災害發生之損失。

This study aims to develop evaluation methods of landslide impact and debris flow in hillside residential communities. The hazard impact is composed of risk assessment results at both the village and community-scale. quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components: the magnitude of the potential loss (i.e. vulnerability, V), and the probability that the loss will occur (i.e. hazard or failure probability, H). The vulnerability at the village-scale was estimated by the model of slopeland household loss (NCDR, 2011), and the consequence score at the community-scale was evaluated by using a grade table of consequence factor (ABRI, 2009). The failure probability (H) was calculated by the “Integrated Model of Landslide and Debris Flow (ILDF)” model. Finally, the hazard impact of hillside communities under different extreme rainfall scenarios was developed and constituted of village-scale and community-scale risk. The results could serve as a reference of central and local governments for field investigation, monitoring and adaptation planning, and disaster losses reduction.